当地时间2025-11-11,rrrrdhasjfbsdkigbjksrifsdlukbgjsab

欧洲多国采购的“豹”2A8主战坦克。

芬兰生产的“帕特里亚”装甲车。

法国生产的“薮猫”装甲车。

近日，外媒报道称，受多重因素影响，欧洲装甲力量发展迎来难得机遇期，同时也面临诸多新挑战。坦克、步兵战车等装甲力量能否维持地面机动作战的核心地位引发讨论，其未来建设趋势也受到关注。

发展呈现新态势

欧洲作为装甲技术发源地与早期实战应用地区，长期将装甲车辆视为地面作战核心装备。冷战结束后，因战略威胁评估调整，欧洲曾逐步缩减装甲力量投入。近年来受俄乌冲突持续影响，多国重新定位装甲车辆作用，推动其发展呈现新态势。

欧洲传统军事强国依托既有军工体系稳步扩充规模。法国以“蝎子计划”为基础，推进装甲力量现代化建设，计划在2032年前采购300辆“美洲豹”、1872辆“狮鹫”和2038辆“薮猫”装甲车，目前交付进度已近半。德国则通过持续加大采购力度强化地面装甲体系，不仅提出购买1000辆芬兰“帕特里亚”装甲车，还宣布投入250亿欧元（约合291亿美元）采购2500辆“拳师犬”装甲车和1000辆“豹”2主战坦克，全面提升装甲装备保有数量和质量。

东欧国家凭借密集采购实现装甲力量快速扩充。东欧多国此前装甲力量基础较弱，近年来，通过多份跨国采购合同扩大规模。波兰加速推进装甲力量扩充，不仅从美韩采购数百辆主战坦克，还计划从本土企业采购1400辆新型步兵战车及配套支援车。罗马尼亚将装甲车辆采购列为发展优先事项，先后从美国采购M1A2主战坦克、与土耳其达成1059辆“眼镜蛇”轻型装甲车采购协议，今年还计划进一步采购246辆步兵战车。

部分欧洲国家则根据自身需求推进装甲力量结构性调整与重建。卢森堡启动史上最大防务项目，投入26亿欧元采购“狮鹫”“美洲豹”等装甲车。荷兰扭转此前“去装甲化”趋势，宣布重建坦克营，计划投入超10亿欧元采购46辆“豹”2A8主战坦克，并增购100至150辆战斗通用装甲车。这些举措标志着装甲力量回归荷兰核心装备序列。

多维探索有侧重

欧洲在装甲车辆发展中，注重机动、火力、防护等传统性能提升，例如通过混合动力系统延长续航里程、更新炮塔与瞄准系统提高打击精度、加装干扰设备应对无人机袭扰。不过，这些领域尚无颠覆性技术突破，性能提升幅度有限，多国转而在研发、生产、使用及维护环节探索不同的发展方式。

一是形成合作共研趋势。多国围绕安全需求联合研发制造新型装甲车辆。以“通用装甲车系统”为例，该项目由芬兰牵头，爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚率先参与，后续瑞典、德国、丹麦逐步加入，旨在打造满足欧洲多国共同需求的新型两栖装甲运输车。目前该项目相关装甲车订单已超850辆。

二是突出通用多能属性。针对各国装备需求差异与军工成本控制诉求，欧洲将通用多能作为装甲车辆发展重要方向。如法国“狮鹫”装甲车采用模块化设计，可衍生出指挥车、装甲运兵车、迫击炮车、医疗运输车等11种任务平台。今年4月，欧洲启动“现有和未来主战坦克技术”项目，集结26家欧洲军工企业及研究机构，计划开发适配“豹”2、“勒克莱尔”等主战坦克的模块化套件，同时为法德联合研制第四代主战坦克提供技术支撑。

三是强调协同作战能力。这一能力建设体现在两方面，一方面是单一国家内部整合，法国陆军将多型装甲车与主战坦克接入统一指挥控制系统，依托战术无线电系统实现作战单元实时信息共享，还计划进一步拓展协同范围，强化装甲平台与火炮、武装直升机等其他陆战装备的联合作战效能；另一方面是跨国对接，比利时、卢森堡采购法制装甲车，核心考量是与法军系统实现战术数据互通以提升协同性，此前法德联合步兵营在波罗的海演习中，通过对接数字化通信标准，使两国装甲车战场信息共享率达88%，验证了跨国协同的可行性。

四是追求维护补给效率。鉴于俄乌冲突中保障车辆频繁受到无人机袭击，欧洲从两方面优化装甲车辆维护补给。一方面，推动零部件通用化，如部分车型共享70%核心部件，减少不同车型的备件储备压力；另一方面，提升自我修复能力，法国陆军已在试验部队配备具备3D打印功能的装甲维修车，可在短时间内复刻多数常用零部件，有效缩短野外抢修周期。

机遇风险需考量

多个市场调研分析报告指出，未来5年，欧洲坦克等装甲车辆市场年均复合增长率将超过5.5%，2030年市场规模将超过125亿美元。有分析认为，欧洲坦克等装甲车辆市场具备特殊的发展基础，主要体现在以下3方面。

TheUnforeseenSilenceoftheJadeChamber

ThebitingwindsofLiyueHarborwereusuallyagentlecaresstoGanyu,afamiliarwhisperofherhomeland.Buttoday,anunnaturalchillclungtotheair,apremonitionofsomethingdeeplyamiss.Thebustlingmarketplace,usuallyavibrantsymphonyofcommerceandchatter,seemedsubdued,asifholdingitsbreath.Ganyu,everdiligent,hadbeenonherwaytodeliveracrucialreporttoNingguang,herthoughtspreoccupiedwithintricatetradenegotiationsandthedelicatebalanceofLiyue’seconomy.Herhooves,usuallysosureandswift,falteredforameremomentasapeculiarglintcaughthereyefromashadowedalleyway.Itwasafleetingdistraction,easilydismissedbyherseasonedawareness,yetitwasenough.

Theattackwasswift,brutal,andutterlyunexpected.Notthegrand,elementalonslaughtofaFatuiHarbinger,northecunningtrapsoftheAbyssOrder,butsomethingfarmoreinsidiousinitscrudeness.Anet,wovenwiththreadsthatseemedtoabsorblight,ensnaredherbeforeshecouldevenfullyreact.Theroughfibersbitintoherskin,ajarringsensationalientothesmooth,polishedsurfacessheusuallyencountered.Panic,asensationGanyurarelyindulged,begantobloominherchest.TheTreasureHoarders,abandofopportunisticbrigandsshehadencounteredonlyinpassingonthefringesofLiyue’scivilizedlands,weretheperpetrators.Theirfaces,contortedwithgreedandasurprising,almostbarbaricglee,wereastarkcontrasttotherefinedthreatsshewasaccustomedto.

Theyhadclearlyplannedthis.Howelsecouldtheyhaveensnaredabeingasagileandpowerfulasherself?ShefeltthefamiliarhumofherCryoabilitiesbeingsuppressed,astrange,suffocatingpressurethatdampenedherinnatepower.Itwasasiftheveryairaroundherhadturnedtolead,renderingherCryoshots,hericeshards,herfrozenmist,impotent.HerQilinheritage,asourceofimmensestrengthandgrace,feltlikeacrueljoke,agildedcageinthismomentofvulnerability.Theropestightened,diggingdeeperwitheverystruggledmovement,eachtugatestamenttoherdiminishingcontrol.ThefamiliarscentofLiyue’sspicesandseasaltwasreplacedbytheacridstenchofunwashedbodiesandcheapliquor.

Hermind,usuallyafortressoflogicandorder,raced.Theimplicationsofhercapturewerestaggering.Theadeptiwereprotectors,guardiansofLiyue’speace.Ifoneoftheirownwastofallintothehandsofcommoncriminals,whatdidthatsayaboutthesafetyofthenation?Whatsecrets,whatknowledge,wouldthesecommonthugsseektoextractfromher?Theyweren’tinterestedinworlddominationorgrandschemes;theirmotivationswerefarmorepedestrian–ransom,perhaps,oreventhebizarredesiretopossessacreatureoflegend.Thisthought,morethanthephysicalrestraint,chilledhertothebone.Theywouldn’tunderstandherpurpose,herdedication.Theywouldonlyseeaprize,ameanstoanend.

Astheydraggedheraway,thebrightLiyuesun,usuallyasymbolofhopeandprosperity,seemedtomockherplight,castinglong,distortedshadowsthatdancedwithherdespair.Thesoundsofthecityfaded,replacedbytherustlingofleavesandthecrunchofgravelundertheirhurriedfootsteps.Eachstepawayfromthefamiliar,fromthesafetyofherduties,feltlikeabetrayalofeverythingshestoodfor.ThethoughtofNingguang,ofthesleeplessnightsshehadspentensuringLiyue’sstability,ofthecountlesstimesshehadsacrificedherownpeaceforthegreatergood,filledherwithagnawingguilt.Shehadfailed.TheQilin,thediligentsecretary,theunwaveringprotector,hadbeencapturedlikeacommonthief.

Thejourneywasarduous,ajarringreminderofhernewfoundhelplessness.Shewasforcedtowalk,herusuallyfree-stridinggaitconfinedbytheroughropesandthecrudeproddingofhercaptors.Theforests,onceaplaceofsolaceandconnection,nowfeltlikeamazeofthreats.Everyrustleofleaves,everysnapofatwig,sentajoltofapprehensionthroughher.Shetriedtorecallanytacticaladvantage,anyhiddenweaknessinhercaptors’formation,buttheircrudenumbersandsurprisingcoordinationofferedlittle.Theyweredrivenbyasingular,relentlessdesire:tokeepherbound.

Thewhispersamongthemwerecrude,filledwithavariciousfantasies.Theyspokeofthewealththeywouldgain,theprestigetheywouldacquireforcapturingsucharareprize.Itwasastarkreminderofthevastgulfbetweentheirworldandhers,aworldwherelegendswerereducedtocommodities.Shecaughtfragmentsoftheirboasts,theircrudejokes,andtherawhungerintheireyes.Itwasavisceral,primalfearthatbegantosetin.Thesewerenotsoldierswithacause;theywerewolves,drivenbyinstinctandopportunity,andshewastheirprey.

Asthesundippedbelowthehorizon,paintingtheskyinhuesoforangeandpurple,Ganyufoundherselfdeeperwithinthewildernessthanshehadeverventuredalone.Theairgrewcolder,notwiththefamiliarchillofherCryo,butwiththebitingbreathofgenuinefear.Thestarsbegantoemerge,distantandindifferent,astarkcontrasttothewarmthandlightshehadalwaysassociatedwithLiyue.ShewasGanyu,theonewhoneverfaltered,thesteadfastdevoteeofLiyue.Andyet,hereshewas,herfutureuncertain,herpowerssuppressed,herheartheavywiththechillingrealizationthateventhemostdevotedguardiancouldbebroughtlowbytheunforeseenmachinationsoftheworld.Thesilencethatnowenvelopedherwasnotthepeacefulsilenceofsolitude,butthesuffocatingsilenceofcaptivity,apreludetoanunknownandterrifyingordeal.

WhispersintheDark:TheChainsofDespairandaGlimmerofHope

Themakeshiftprisonwasascrudeasitscaptors.Arough-hewncage,constructedfromsturdylogsandreinforcedwithironbands,becameGanyu’snewreality.Theairwithinwasstale,carryingthelingeringscentofdampearthanddesperation.TheTreasureHoarders,havingsecuredtheirprize,seemedtorevelintheirperceivedvictory,theirboisterouslaughterechoingthroughthesurroundingwoods.Theyparadedheraroundtheircamp,atrophyoftheirdaringexploit,theireyesfilledwithamixtureofaweandavarice.Ganyu,herheadheldhighdespitethecircumstances,refusedtoshowthemthefearthatgnawedatherinsides.

Eachpassinghourwasatestamenttoherhelplessness.HerinnateCryoabilities,thoughsuppressed,stillpulsedfaintlywithinher,aconstantreminderofwhatshehadlost.Itwaslikehavingwingsandbeingconfinedtotheground,acrueltauntofhertruenature.Shetriedtoanalyzethecompositionofthecage,searchingforanyweakness,anyloosejointthatcouldbeexploited.Hersharpeyes,accustomedtospottingthesubtlestofdetailsinherwork,nowscannedforanychinkinherarmor.Butthecraftsmanship,whilecrude,wassurprisinglyrobust,designedforthesolepurposeofcontainment.

TheTreasureHoarders,intheircrudefashion,werenotentirelywithoutaplan.Theyspokeofabuyer,someonewhowouldpayhandsomelyforacreatureoflegend.Thedetailswerevague,lostintheirdrunkenramblings,buttheimplicationwasclear:Ganyuwasacommodity,herfreedomtiedtothewhimsofunseenindividuals.Thisthoughtfueledafreshwaveofanxiety.TheFatuiwerepredictableintheircruelty,theAbyssOrderintheirmalice.Butthesecommoncriminals,drivenbysimplegreed,wereamoreunpredictablethreat.Theiractionscouldbeimpulsive,theirdemandsunreasonable,theirultimategoalsolelyfinancial.

Ganyu’smind,however,wasafortressthatevenphysicalchainscouldnotfullybreach.Shebegantorecallhertraining,thelessonslearnedfromtheadepti,theresilienceforgedthroughcenturiesofservice.Sheobservedhercaptors,notingtheirroutines,theirshiftsinguard,theirmomentsofcomplacency.Theiroverconfidencewastheirgreatestweakness,theirbeliefintheirimpregnablecageafatalflaw.Shelistenedtotheirconversations,piecingtogetherfragmentsofinformation,tryingtounderstandtheirmotivationsandtheirnetworks.Theywereascattered,disorganizedgroup,unitedonlybytheirsharedpursuitofill-gottengains.

Daysbledintonights,markedonlybythechanginglightandthecyclicalsoundsofthecamp.TheinitialbravadooftheTreasureHoardersbegantowane,replacedbyanervousanticipation.Thepromisedbuyerwasyettoarrive,andwitheachpassingmoment,theiruneasegrew.Ganyu,inherquietobservation,noticedthisshift.Theguardsbecamemorevigilant,theirmovementsmoreagitated.Thewhispersamongthemturnedfromboaststoanxieties.

Then,anewsoundcutthroughtheusualcampchatter–thefaint,melodicchimeofbells.Itwasasoundthat,inothercircumstances,mighthavebroughthercomfort,butnow,itsentarippleofuncertaintythroughher.TheTreasureHoardersreactedwithamixtureofexcitementandapprehension.Theygatheredtheirweapons,theireyesdartingtowardsthesourceofthesound.Ganyu’sheart,whichhadbeensteadilycalminginitsrhythm,begantopoundanew.Wasthisthebuyer?Orwasitanewthreat,drawnbythecommotion?

Asthesoundgrewcloser,afigureemergedfromthetrees.Itwasn'tthebrutishfigureofaseasonedbandit,northecold,calculatingdemeanorofaFatuiagent.Instead,itwasayoungwoman,herattiresimplebutelegant,hereyessharpandobservant.Shecarriedasmalllute,fromwhichthemelodicchimesemanated.Ganyurecognizedher.Itwasatravelingbard,someoneshehadencounteredonoccasion,knownforherquickwitandheruncannyabilitytogatherinformation.

TheTreasureHoarders,initiallywary,quicklyrevertedtotheirgreedynature.Theysawanotherpotentialmark,anothersourceofwealth.Butthebardwasnoteasilyintimidated.Shespokewithacalmauthority,hervoicecuttingthroughtheirbluster.Ganyu,thoughunabletounderstandthefullexchange,couldsensetheshiftingtides.Thebardwasnotheretobuy;shewasheretoobserve,toperhapsevennegotiate.

Aflickerofhope,fragileyetpersistent,ignitedwithinGanyu.Thisunexpectedarrival,thisdeviationfromhercaptors’plan,presentedanopportunity.Thebard,withhersharpintellectandhernetworkofcontacts,mightbethekeytoherescape.Ganyufocusedherremainingenergy,asubtlesurgeofCryo,notenoughtobreakherbonds,butenoughtosendafainttremorthroughthecage.Itwasasilentsignal,adesperatepleasentintothenight.

Thebard’seyes,quickasahawk’s,caughtthesubtlemovement.Athoughtfulexpressioncrossedherface.ShecontinuedherconversationwiththeTreasureHoarders,herwordsaskillfuldiversion,buthergazeoccasionallyflickeredtowardsGanyu’scage.Itwasasilentunderstanding,anascentallianceforgedintheshadows.Thenightwasstillyoung,andthefateoftheQilinhungprecariouslyinthebalance,butforthefirsttimesincehercapture,Ganyufeltaglimmerofpossibility.Thechainsofdespairwerestillheavy,butanewmelody,oneofhope,hadbeguntoplayinthedarkness.Thejourneybacktofreedom,sheknew,wouldbefraughtwithperil,butnow,shewasnotentirelyalone.

投资方面，多国自主投入与欧盟支持共促发展。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所数据显示，除马耳他外，2024年欧洲各国军费支出均有提高；今年6月北约峰会中，多数欧洲国家同意2035年前将国防开支提至国内生产总值的5%，预示欧洲防务投入将持续增长。此外，近年来，欧洲为推进防务自主，出台多项法案与战略。这些资金保障与政策支持为装甲车辆发展奠定了基础。

在需求方面，传统国家推进与新兴需求双向驱动。法国、德国、英国等欧洲国家为维持影响力，持续推进装甲力量建设。同时，受北约东扩、俄乌冲突影响及武器装备更新换代需求驱动，部分欧洲国家逐步替换原有苏制装备，转而采购符合北约标准的装备。在此影响下，欧洲装甲车辆市场需求将维持一定规模。

在制造方面，工业基础支撑与跨国协同优配资源。欧洲部分国家具备较强工业制造基础，既能保障本土军工体系运转，也能通过跨国协同优化资源配置、降低生产成本。以“欧洲未来高机动增强装甲系统2”项目为例，该项目吸引9个欧盟成员国的35家防务企业参与，整合各企业在动力系统、通信系统、武器平台等领域的技术优势，采取“集中研发+各国组装”的模式推进，在提升装备性能的同时，兼顾各国利益平衡。

不过，针对欧洲装甲力量的快速发展，防务领域相关人士也存在不同看法。有观点质疑，装甲车辆的全生命周期成本较高，除前期需投入高额采购资金外，还需承担长期维护保养及后期更新升级的持续开支。若仅以本土防御需求为目标，多数国土面积较小的欧洲国家采购单兵反坦克导弹、攻击型无人机的效费比更高。

还有观点认为，欧洲多国联合开展武器装备项目研发时，常因各国建设标准、未来需求存在差异而产生分歧，进而出现项目终止或参与方分拆各自推进的情况。当前法国与德国共同推进的“未来地面主战系统”项目自2013年启动以来，围绕核心性能指标的争议持续存在，近期虽有新进展，但未来发展仍存在不确定性。尤其在装甲车辆自动驾驶、反无人机等关键技术指标上，各国诉求差异可能导致研发方向出现较大分歧。欧洲装甲车辆能否长期维持当前发展态势，仍需进一步观察。（王昌凡）

图片来源：好奇心日报记者 李建军 摄

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